This paper examines the effect of exposure to refugees on locals’ attitudes towards ethnic minorities and voting preferences in the Netherlands. Refugees seeking asylum register at a central reception center, where they stay for two weeks before being assigned to a refugee accommodation facility located in or near residential areas. During the European migration crisis (2011-2016), there was a large influx of refugees from ethnic minority groups, with the number of refugee facilities increasing from around 35-48 in 2011-2013 to about 50 in 2014, and peaking at 120 in 2016. Concurrently, attitudes towards ethnic diversity in the Netherlands generally became more negative, and voting preferences shifted towards parties with a tough stance on immigration.
The analysis utilizes individual-level panel data from 2011 to 2016 (excluding 2014), combining: (1) data on attitudes towards ethnic diversity, immigration and voting preferences from the LISS Core Survey on Politics and Values; (2) administrative information on the residential locations of asylum seekers; and (3) socio-demographic data on municipalities and neighborhoods from Statistics Netherlands (CBS). The sample comprises individuals who were not exposed to refugees in their neighborhood or vicinity before 2014, with some experiencing an influx of refugees between 2014 and 2016, while others remained unexposed.
The authors exploit the sudden influx of refugees into certain neighborhoods in the Netherlands between 2014 and 2016 to examine whether exposure to ethnic minorities influenced preferences on ethnic diversity. To allow for a causal interpretation of the exposure effect, they rely on the parallel-trend assumption, assuming that preferences of individuals in the Treatment group (neighborhoods that would later host refugees) and the Control group (neighborhoods without refugees) would have followed similar patterns if the refugee influx had not occurred, accounting for individual and year fixed effects and other controls. To understand the mechanisms driving the results, the authors examine variations in proximity to refugee facilities, duration of exposure, and the number of refugees hosted in a neighborhood.
Main results:
- Exposure to refugees leads to a decrease in anti-immigrant attitudes. Individuals who experienced an influx of refugees in their neighborhood developed more positive attitudes towards ethnic diversity and were less inclined to vote for the far right compared to those not exposed. Specifically, exposure to refugees decreases the likelihood of voting for the far right by 4.6 percentage points relative to unexposed individuals. This finding supports the notion that changes in voting preferences are accompanied by changes in attitudes towards ethnic diversity.
- The impact of exposure is highly localized, indicating that personal encounters with ethnic minorities may be important in shaping preferences. There is no significant effect on individuals exposed to refugees in their municipality but not in their immediate neighborhood, suggesting that proximity is key to influencing attitudes.
- The effect is particularly strong when exposure lasts longer than six months and when the influx of refugees is not too large. This suggests that positive contact or lack of negative contact is essential for generating a positive exposure effect, while an excessively large influx may not yield the same positive outcomes.
- There are strong heterogeneous effects depending on pre-exposure voting preferences. The impact of exposure to refugees is significantly stronger for individuals who were relatively right-leaning before the refugees arrived in their neighborhood compared to those who were left-leaning. This indicates that exposure to refugees has the potential to reduce polarization by moderating the views of right-leaning individuals.
- None of the other mechanisms considered—such as improved employment opportunities, increased confidence in the government in neighborhoods hosting refugees (e.g., due to increased public spending), or changes in preferences on matters unrelated to ethnic diversity—can explain the results. This underscores the importance of direct exposure to refugees in shaping attitudes and voting preferences.
The study concludes that proximity and sustained exposure to refugees significantly enhance positive attitudes towards ethnic diversity and reduce the inclination to vote for far-right parties. The effects are strongest when the influx of refugees is not too large, supporting the idea that positive interethnic contact is more likely when rather small groups of refugees enter local realities. These findings indicate that policies promoting interaction between ethnic minorities and the majority population can shift political preferences. Specifically, dispersing refugees geographically and providing local support for their integration can improve attitudes towards ethnic minorities, particularly among right-leaning individuals, thereby mitigating polarization and curbing the rise of extreme right parties.