This paper examines factors associated with Syrian refugees’ intentions to return to Syria. It contrasts the return intentions of Syrian refugees in Turkey—a proximate, culturally similar country that provides temporary protection—with those in Germany—a more distant, culturally different country that offers permanent protection. Turkey hosts 3.6 million Syrians, and Germany received the largest number of Syrian asylum applicants in the EU (679,000 between 2015 and 2021).
The authors conduct a multivariate analysis to assess the determinants of return intentions, considering refugee characteristics, host-country conditions, and origin-country conditions. The analysis draws on a 2018 survey of 577 Syrian refugees in Turkey and Germany. Respondents were asked about their willingness to return under three scenarios: within two years, when Syria is as safe as before the war, and ever. The survey also captured demographics, pre-war circumstances and assets, host-country experiences, and family and security considerations in Syria. In addition, the authors tested whether brief exposure to positive or negative information about conditions facing returnees would shift stated intentions.
Descriptive statistics show that only about one-third intended to return within two years, and fewer than 40 percent would return even if Syria were as safe as before the war; by contrast, more than two-thirds expressed an intention to return “ever.” Stated return intentions differed by host country: only 13 percent of refugees in Germany wanted to return after two years, compared with half of those in Turkey. Roughly half of refugees in Germany indicated that they wanted to return to Syria eventually, whereas more than 75 percent of respondents in Turkey wanted to go back one day.
Main findings:
- Refugees in Turkey are more likely to intend to return than those in Germany. In Turkey, the likelihood of intending to return was consistently higher across all scenarios (by roughly 23 percentage points for short-term return and up to 51 percentage points when Syria is safe). This host-country gap points to differences in policy environments, integration trajectories, and perceived settlement options.
- Some individual characteristics are associated with return intentions. Women and highly educated refugees show systematically lower willingness to return across scenarios. Those who were married were less inclined toward early return, while those who self-identified as poor before the war were more likely to express interest in long-run return. Age was not a significant determinant of return intentions.
- Brief information exposure does not meaningfully shift return intentions. Randomized positive or negative messages about challenges or support for returnees had small, statistically insignificant effects on stated preferences.
- Loss of assets in Syria substantially reduces return intentions. Refugees who reported no remaining assets in Syria were 11–20 percentage points less likely to consider returning.
- Feeling unwelcome in the host country correlates with lower long-term return intentions. Not feeling welcome is associated with a 10–19 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of intending to return when Syria is safe or ever.
- Values related to services and civic life matter. Those who valued the presence of civil society were 19 percentage points more likely to indicate that they would return when Syria was as safe as before the war. Those who placed a high value on health services were 14 percentage points less likely to indicate that they would return under the same condition, while the availability of safe houses increased the intention to return within the next two years by 10 percentage points.
- Security fears and family ties in Syria are pivotal. The security situation in Syria was the most frequently cited reason for not returning, underscoring the primacy of safety. Having family in Syria increases return interest, including about a 10 percentage point rise for those considering return when the country is safe.
In conclusion, the study finds that return intentions are shaped by security and family ties in Syria, host-country context, and selected individual characteristics, with limited responsiveness to brief informational nudges. Policy implications include investing in inclusive integration and services in host countries given the likelihood of prolonged displacement; recognizing the potential long-term skills loss for Syria due to lower return intentions among highly educated refugees; and grounding return policies in careful, micro-level evidence on refugees’ preferences.