Opening and strategic framing

• Introduction to the dialogue
• Workshop objectives and expected outcomes in the context of “50 by 35”
• Positioning evidence in support of national reform agendas and inclusive economic growth. Why evidence matters now for policy, operations, and investment decisions

Brief opening remarks from:

• Chris Gabelle, World Bank Group, Kenya
• Maja Lazić, Deputy Head, Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement (JDC)
• Martin Manteaw, Head of Bureau Strategic Planning and Management Service, UNHCR Bureau for Eastern and Southern Africa
• Tiest Sondaal, Deputy Head of Cooperation/Regional Coordinator for Refugees and Migration, Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands
• Henrik Larsen, Head of Cooperation, Royal Danish Embassy, Kenya
• Dr. Belio Kipsang, Principal Secretary, State Department for Immigration and Citizen Services, Kenya

Contextualizing 50 by 35 and self-reliance for East Africa

• Presentation on the displaced population, solution pathways, and how the 50 by 35 targets scale in East Africa

What does self-reliance mean in practice, and what should be measured?

• What the evidence says about why socioeconomic outcomes remain limited, including the main pathways, constraints, and market barriers
• Implications for prioritization under fiscal and capacity constraints

• Maarouf Isaaka-Toure, UNHCR Regional Bureau
• Precious Zikhali & Kristina Vaughan, World Bank Group

Evidence to advance policies: A comparative government discussion

• Country scene-setting presentations on refugee inclusion plans in the context of Kenya’s Shirika Plan, Ethiopia’s Makatet Roadmap, and Uganda’s inclusion/transition strategies
• Moderated discussion on the role of data and evidence in informing these frameworks/policy choices & where the most critical gaps remain (30 mins)
• Q&A (one per country)

• Mercy Mwasaru, Commissioner, Department of Refugee Services, Kenya
• Helen Bugaari, Director, CRRF Secretariat, Uganda
• Muhamed Husein, M&E Team Leader, Refugees and Returnees Service, Ethiopia

Chris Gabelle, World Bank Group

Anna Leichtfried, UNHCR

Making displacement data visible in national data systems and usable for policy and programming

• Integrating refugees into national household surveys, including the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey, the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) and Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS), and the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Panel Survey (ESPS)
• Practical lessons from Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia on linking inclusive data systems to policy formulation, implementation, and monitoring, and the roles of line ministries, National Statistical Offices, and partners in sustaining efforts

• Rosemary Chepkoech, Director, Population and Social Statistics, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
• Million Taye, Head of the Migration and Urbanization Statistics Desk, Ethiopian Statistical Service
• Sharon Apio, Head of Department, Demography and Social Statistics, Uganda Bureau of Statistics

Maja Lazić, JDC

Precious Zikhali, World Bank Group

Operationalizing sustainable human settlements for refugees and hosts: Practical solutions

• Framing: What is the typology of existing camps/settlements and what are the challenges for transition and sustainability for type of settlement?
• Tools: What planning, governance and service delivery tools can be used in planning and managing the transition of camps/settlements and/or refugees out of camps/settlements?
• Key factors supporting/preventing the socioeconomic and spatial integration of refugee camps
• Country perspectives: Kenya and Ethiopia

• Video from Deep Dive Learning Academy
• Soraya Goga, World Bank Group (virtual)
• Chris Ward, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)
• Filiep Decorte, UN-Habitat
• Daido Aragon, Senior Physical Planner, State Department, Housing and Urban Development, Kenya
• Hassen Bulo, Head, Director General's Office, Refugees and Returnees Service, Ethiopia

Wrap-up session

Chris Gabelle, World Bank Group

Maja Lazic, JDC

Pathways to scale jobs and private sector engagement

• Presenting empirical findings on how structuring capital for displaced talent drives local job creation, tax revenue, and innovation. Outlining how investors can classify and target commercial opportunities in these contexts
• What it takes to operationalize refugee talent, integrating local supply chains, and achieving enterprise profitability
• Panel: If the empirical data shows this model works and is profitable, why isn't more capital flowing? What specific market intelligence or policy shifts are missing?

• Christine Mahoney, Refugee Investment Network (RIN)
• Mary Kibugi, Kakuma Kalobeyei Challenge Fund (KKCF) Client
• Wanji Ng'ang'a, Acumen
• Francis Nderitu, Keep it Cool (Acumen Client)

Economic inclusion and self-reliance pathways:

• Summary of policies in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia that offer livelihoods/ self-reliance pathways for refugees
• What rights do refugees exercise in practice? Are there structural challenges preventing access?
• Reflections on locally-generated research on employment

• Masud Rahman, UNHCR Regional Bureau
• Jonas Ndayisenga, Umoja Refugee Creative, Kenya
• Irene Shiundu, International Rescue Committee
• Allan Mukuki, Strathmore University – Forced Migration and Displacement Research Hub

Katie Ogwang, UNHCR

Country case studies

• Evidence from World Bank Group-financed WHR programs in the region on economic inclusion and transition pathways.
• Transition of water services in Uganda from a humanitarian model (partnership between WBG, UNHCR, Government of Uganda)
• Implementation of the Refugee Work Rights Policy in Ethiopia / Uganda lessons; and Ethiopia Economic Opportunities Program/Urban Productive Safety Net and Jobs Project
• Q&A/moderated discussion

• Dr. Martin Wamalwa, Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda
• Sandra Rozo, World Bank Group

Predictive modeling: Strengthening preparedness for refugee inflows – lessons from Uganda

• How Uganda’s refugee-inflow forecasting model and predictive analysis can inform planning and preparedness in refugee-hosting districts
• Which elements could be replicated in neighboring contexts, including the adaptations, evidence, and partnerships needed to sustain and scale it?

Related resources:

• AI-Powered Refugee Forecasting: Preparing for Refugee Movements Before They Happen
• How AI can support anticipatory action to address forced displacement

• Matthew Stephens, Lead Social Development Specialist, World Bank Group, virtual + short video
• Dr. Robert Limlim, Project Coordinator, Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project II, Office of the Prime Minister, Government of Uganda
• Chris Mahoney, co-founder and CEO, peloria.ai, virtual
• Jason Hepps, UNHCR Representative, Uganda, virtual
• Q&A

How evidence enters policy and operations

What evidence do policymakers and operational teams need but not have?

• What makes evidence usable for policy, investment, and operational decision-making, and where does uptake tend to break down?
• How should findings/evidence be presented to make it easier to use?

• Dorian Kivumbi, Head of Section ‘Migration and Resilience’ in the Regional Partnerships Unit at the EU Delegation to Kenya
• Plenary and breakout groups drawing out shared evidence gaps, examples of what has worked, barriers to uptake, and priorities for future research and communication

Reflections from government officials: Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia

Key takeaways and closing

• Concluding discussions on cross-cutting recommendations and priority evidence gaps

Chris Gabelle, World Bank Group &

Maja Lazic, JDC