This article examines the impact of refugee returns on social cohesion in Burundi. Burundi experienced a major conflict, the mass displacement of refugees, and their mass return after more than a decade abroad. Burundi also has a scarcity of fertile land, which could contribute to competition and affect social cohesion when refugees return in large numbers.
Returning refugees may amplify divisions that contributed to conflict (for example, clan, ethnic, regional, or class differences), introduce new sources of tension between those who fled and those who remained during the conflict, or exacerbate tensions due to increased competition for scarce resources such as land.
The analysis is based on data collected in 2015 covering households in 100 communities across Burundi, including detailed information on violence and reconciliation, trust, and participation in community groups. Social cohesion is measured by: (a) measures of support across households; (b) feelings towards conflict and reconciliation; (c) trust in others and in specific groups; and (d) participation in different community organizations. The analysis considers differences between communities with more or less ethnic diversity, more or less pre-war land scarcity, and more or less negative attitudes towards migrant return.
Main findings:
- Refugee return has a negative impact on the perception that community members help each other. A 10-percentage point increase in the population share of returnees in a community leads to a 10-percentage point reduction in the likelihood of stating that community members mostly help each The effect is larger in communities with more negative attitudes towards return, which are less ethnically diverse and with less pre-war land availability.
- Refugee return has a negative impact on the feeling that community members could borrow money for emergencies from non-household members. A 10- percentage point increase in the population share of returnees decreases the possibility of borrowing money this way by 8 percentage points. The effect is larger for more ethnically diverse communities, for communities with more positive attitudes towards return, and for communities with less pre-war land availability.
- Refugee return has a negative impact on the feeling that the community is peaceful. A 10-percentage point increase in the population share of refugees leads to a 6-percentage point reduction in the likelihood of perceiving the community as peaceful. The effect is similar across more and less diverse communities. The effect is stronger in communities with more negative attitudes towards return.
- The estimated impacts of refugee return on measures of trust and participation in community groups are mostly statistically insignificant.
Overall, the results suggest that the process of refugee out-migration and return could lead to new divisions in society based on the location of individuals during the conflict. The authors highlight the need for a nuanced and context-specific approach to promoting social cohesion in communities experiencing high levels of refugee repatriation.