The Syrian Situation: Host Country Effects and the Prospects for Return

The Syrian refugee crisis has reached a pivotal juncture with the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024. With Syria’s political transition improving prospects for voluntary return, sustainable repatriation will depend on meeting a minimum security threshold and rapidly scaling area-based, inclusive investments that support both returnees and the non-displaced populations. This Digest synthesizes leading evidence on two central themes: the integration of Syrian refugees in host countries throughout the conflict—highlighting impacts on labor markets and social cohesion—and the prospects and implications of refugee returns to Syria. It examines the main drivers shaping return intentions, and the challenges faced by returnees. The evidence highlights the importance of security and area-based investments, which together may promote sustainable refugee returns. Investments that benefit both returnees and the non-displaced communities can further promote reintegration and social cohesion in
Syria. Recognizing that many Syrian refugees will remain in host countries until conditions in Syria improve further, evidence also supports policies that facilitate the effective integration of refugees in host countries, allowing them to accumulate knowledge, skills, and assets to facilitate their eventual return and reintegration.