This report develops a methodology to estimate the global cost of providing international assistance to meet refugee subsistence needs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the host country’s contribution arising from allowing refugees to participate in the local economy, and the complementary assistance required from the international community to bridge the remaining gap. It does so in response to a UN General Assembly omnibus resolution (A/RES/73/151) calling for analysis of the costs and burden-sharing arrangements associated with hosting refugees. The analysis focuses on 28.5 million refugees (as of end-2022) residing in 72 LMICs, which collectively host approximately 95 percent of refugees in these country groups. Roughly 46 percent of this population is hosted in upper-middle-income countries, one-third in lower-middle-income countries, and the remainder in low-income countries. Over 90 percent of refugees living in camp settings are in IDA or IDA-blend countries.
The analysis uses World Bank global poverty lines as the benchmark for subsistence needs: PPP$ 2.15 per person per day in low-income countries, PPP$ 3.65 in lower-middle-income countries, and PPP$ 6.85 in upper-middle-income countries. The annual benchmark cost for each country is derived by multiplying the refugee population by the applicable daily poverty line. Complementary assistance, the amount required to bring refugee incomes up to the poverty line—is estimated inclusive of an 8 percent administrative cost markup. The host country contribution, termed “participation savings,” is the difference between the benchmark cost and the complementary assistance required, representing the reduction in international aid needs attributable to refugees’ economic activity. The report also models four scenarios—a baseline (zero refugee income), a current participation scenario, a strengthened participation scenario (refugee incomes increasing by 15 to 25 percent), and a full participation scenario (refugees earning at the same level as host nationals)—to illustrate how economic participation policies affect the financing gap. Robustness checks include an adjusted benchmark that accounts for host population poverty levels, to avoid scenarios in which refugees would be made better off than their hosts.
Refugee income and poverty gap estimates draw on microdata from 11 household surveys across 9 countries: Bangladesh (Cox’s Bazar Panel Survey, 2023), Chad (4th National Harmonized Survey, 2018), Colombia (GEIH, 2021; Encuesta Pulso de la Migracion, 2021), Costa Rica (ENAHO, 2021), Ethiopia (SESRE, 2023), Jordan (Vulnerability Assessment Framework, 2018), Kenya (three surveys, 2016–2021), Niger (EHCVM, 2018), and Uganda (Refugee and Host Communities Household Survey, 2018). For countries without microdata, the report extrapolates using a regional approach that groups refugees by geographic region and crisis type, assigning poverty gap estimates based on comparable de facto access-to-work conditions. Refugee population counts and camp/non-camp settlement shares are sourced from the UNHCR Global Trends database, host country poverty data from the World Bank Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP), and access-to-work categorizations from the UNHCR Global Survey on Livelihoods and Economic Inclusion.
Main findings:
- The annual benchmark cost of meeting refugee subsistence needs across LMICs is estimated at between US$56 billion and US$62 billion. Less than 10 percent of this total corresponds to low-income countries, approximately 25 percent to lower-middle-income countries, and 65 percent to upper-middle-income countries; this reflects not only the higher share of refugees hosted in MICs, but also the relatively higher minimum welfare standard in MICs compared to LICs. The top 15 hosting countries account for 79 percent (US$48.3 billion) of the total benchmark cost, with Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan alone accounting for US$15.5 billion.
- Refugees already cover approximately two-thirds of their own subsistence needs through economic activity, generating an estimated US$41 billion per year in “participation savings”. This figure represents the reduction in international assistance costs attributable to host countries permitting refugees to participate in local economies. The report identifies this as the primary and most substantial form of host country contribution to global burden-sharing.
- The complementary assistance required from the international community to close the gap between refugee earnings and the poverty line is estimated at US$22 billion annually, including administrative costs. This figure is nearly double the total volume of Official Development Assistance directed to refugee situations in LMICs, which stood at US$12.7 billion in 2021.
- Encampment and restrictions on movement are associated with substantially higher income poverty gaps among refugees. In Ethiopia, the poverty gap for refugees in camps is 73 percent, compared to 2 percent for refugees in Addis Ababa. Similarly, in Uganda, the gap is approximately 60 percent for refugees in camp settings compared to 3 percent for those in Kampala. Among the most constrained populations, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh face a poverty gap of approximately 85 percent due to severe restrictions on economic participation.
- If refugee incomes were to increase by 25 percent through strengthened economic participation, the required complementary assistance would fall by approximately half, from US$22 billion to US$11 billion per year. Under a full participation scenario, which refugees earn at the same level as host nationals, the required complementary assistance would decline further to US$5.7 billion annually, a reduction of approximately 75 percent from current levels.
The report concludes that the current framework for international refugee financing is both insufficient and structurally misaligned: current ODA flows cover less than half of the estimated complementary assistance required, while host countries—principally through permitting economic participation—already bear most of the global cost. The authors argue that the dialogue on burden-sharing should shift from abstract principles to an evidence-based discussion grounded in measurable financial contributions. For host countries, the report recommends progressively easing encampment and labor market restrictions and incorporating refugees into national social protection systems. For the international community, it recommends moving toward multi-year, predictable development financing and channeling a portion of participation savings back to host governments to offset negative spillovers—such as labor market competition and increased demand for housing—so that host populations also benefit from refugee inclusion. The authors also note that improved data collection on refugee incomes, particularly in countries relying on regional extrapolation, would strengthen the accuracy of future estimates.