This paper examines the effect of asylum policies on the number of asylum applications and refugee arrivals. Specifically, the author tests the “deterrence hypothesis” that enacting punitive measures reduces the number of asylum applications and refugee arrivals.
The analysis is based on a global dataset that combines destination country-year data on refugee treatment with asylum applications and refugee arrivals. Data on refugee treatment are drawn from the World Refugee Survey undertaken by the US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants (USCRI) between 2005 and 2009, measuring the degree to which refugees enjoyed rights relating to: (1) non-refoulement and physical protection (“refugee physical protection”); (2) detention and access to courts (“refugee due process”); (3) freedom of movement and residence (“refugee freedom of movement”); and (4) right to earn a livelihood (“refugee livelihoods”). The dataset also includes destination and origin country characteristics such as economic conditions, regime type, political violence, existing co-national networks, a common language, and historical colonial ties. No European destination countries were included in the dataset because USCRI does not disaggregate EU (European Union) data by country.
The analysis was conducted for each dyad (pair of origin and destination countries) in each year, for a total of 35,842 dyad-year observations. Due to the high proportion of observations with zeros (86 percent of observations for asylum applications and 94 percent for refugee arrivals), the author selected a zero-inflated binomial regression model for the empirical analysis.
Main findings:
- Better overall treatment of refugees is associated with a small increase in refugee arrivals, but not with changes in the number of asylum applications. An improvement in overall refugee rights raises the number of refugee arrivals, but the result is not statistically significant in all empirical models, providing only mixed support for the deterrence hypothesis.
- Refoulement and other threats to physical safety are not associated with a reduction in the numbers of people seeking asylum or refuge. An improvement in refugee physical protection decreases asylum applications and refugee arrivals, contradicting the deterrence hypothesis.
- Arbitrary detentions are not associated with the numbers of people filing asylum applications or arriving as refugees. Refugee due process does not have a statistically significant effect on asylum applications or refugee arrivals, contradicting the deterrence hypothesis.
- Encampment is associated with a moderate increase in the number of asylum applications or refugee arrivals. An improvement in refugee freedom of movement decreases asylum applications, contradicting the deterrence hypothesis.
- Expanded access to the labor market is associated with small increases in the number of asylum-seekers and refugees. An improvement in refugee livelihoods leads to an increase in asylum applications and refugee arrivals, consistent with the deterrence hypothesis, though with small substantive effects.
- Economic conditions and political conditions in destination countries affect asylum applications and refugee arrivals. Economic conditions in the destination country are associated with increased numbers of asylum applications and refugee arrivals. Democratic governance in the destination country is associated with an increase in asylum applications but not refugee arrivals.
- Poverty and political terror in the country of origin are associated with larger numbers of asylum-seekers and refugees, while interstate war is associated with larger numbers of asylum-seekers only. Democratic governance and civil conflict in the origin country do not appear to be associated with asylum applications and refugee arrivals, while fewer deaths from genocide are correlated with greater numbers of asylum applications and refugee arrivals.
- Refugee networks, common language, and colonial ties have no or inconsistent effects on asylum applications and refugee arrivals. Having a common language or colonial ties with the destination country does not increase either asylum applications or refugee arrivals. Existing refugee networks in the country of origin have a statistically significant effect on asylum applications and refugee arrivals in some empirical models.
- The greater the distance between destination and origin country, the smaller the number of asylum applications and refugee arrivals.
The author concludes that the deterrent effect of rights violations depends on the specific refugee rights that are infringed upon. Deportation, detention, and encampment are not associated with a decrease in asylum applications or refugee arrivals and may be correlated with an increase in them in some cases. This finding suggests that these policies do not dissuade individuals who are seeking protection. While reduced access to the labor market may deter small numbers of asylum-seekers and refugees, there are other sound reasons for destination countries to avoid restrictive employment policies.